Saturday December 21
Suggested Bets (Manual Form) for SATURDAY
No manual bets today
QUADDIES – FLEMINGTON
NARROW: QUADDIE: 1,2 / 3,4,5 / 2,7,9 / 7,11,12
$27 = 50%
WIDE QUADDIE: 1,2,3,9,11 / 3,4,5,10 / 1,2,7,9 / 4,5,7,8,11,12
$48 = 10%
Suggested Auto Bets:
Auto (Category One) Win Bets (Min $2 Win Odds Required)
| 21/12/19 @ ASCOT Race 8 #5 REGAL POWER Grant & Alana Williams / William Pike (58) $ |
Auto (2 points clear) Win Bets (Min $2 Win Odds Required)
| 21/12/19 @ GAWLER Race 4 #5 PICARGO Ryan Balfour / Dom Tourneur (57.5) |
| 21/12/19 @ FLEMINGTON Race 5 #1 SOMETHING SILVER Clinton McDonald / Teodore Nugent (a2) (58.5) |
| 21/12/19 @ GAWLER Race 6 #3 EXTREME THRILL Wayne Francis & Glen Kent / Rose Pearson (a3) (55) |
| 21/12/19 @ ASCOT Race 6 #6 LAVERROD Sean Casey / Patrick Carbery (56) |
The Auto (Category One) Place Bets have a good strike rate, but they’re certainly best value when backed early in the week (and it is suggested to only back these at $2 the place or longer and only in races with eight or more runners). The qualifiers at this stage are:
| 21/12/19 @ FLEMINGTON Race 1 #7 EL DON Peter Gelagotis / Teodore Nugent (a2) (52) $ |
| 21/12/19 @ FLEMINGTON Race 7 #4 CAPPO D’ORO Patrick Payne / Billy Egan (57) $ |
| 21/12/19 @ RANDWICK Race 7 #5 PUMPKIN PIE Richard & Michael Freedman / Glen Boss (59) $ |
| 21/12/19 @ EAGLE FARM Race 8 #7 INTUITION James Cummings / Ryan Maloney (55.5) $ |
| 21/12/19 @ ASCOT Race 8 #6 MISSISSIPPI DELTA Grant & Alana Williams / Clint Johnston-Porter (57) $ |
The Category Two Place Bets are those who should be in a good position upon straightening and might just be able to hold on for a place at decent odds. The same conditions apply as with the Category One Place Bets. With these, I like to see Sectional Ratings in the top three in the race and I’d also prefer that their Last 400 ratings aren’t hopeless. On those conditions, today’s best are:
| 21/12/19 @ FLEMINGTON Race 4 #10 VOLUM Mark Young / Luke Nolen (58) $4.6 |
| 21/12/19 @ FLEMINGTON Race 6 #3 ZOUSHACK David & B Hayes & T Dabernig / Jye McNeil (58.5) $2.4 |
| 21/12/19 @ RANDWICK Race 7 #5 PUMPKIN PIE Richard & Michael Freedman / Glen Boss (59) $2 |
| 21/12/19 @ EAGLE FARM Race 7 #10 SISTER PATTI Les Ross / Luke Tarrant (54) $4.4 |
| 21/12/19 @ GAWLER Race 6 #3 EXTREME THRILL Wayne Francis & Glen Kent / Rose Pearson (a3) (55) $2.2 |
| 21/12/19 @ GAWLER Race 9 #3 AUSSIE JACK Shayne Cahill / Shayne Cahill (58.5) $2.5 |
| 21/12/19 @ ASCOT Race 2 #2 ZEPHYR QUEEN Jim Taylor / Chloe Azzopardi (a2) (57.5) $2.8 |
| 21/12/19 @ ASCOT Race 7 #2 RED PUBLISHER Ashley Maley / Jade McNaught (a1.5) (57.5) $2.45 |
| 21/12/19 @ ASCOT Race 7 #4 BARAKI BEATS Jo-Anne Leeson / Colin Haddon (55.5) $3.8 |
| 21/12/19 @ ASCOT Race 7 #5 AVIDUS Steele Casey / Clint Johnston-Porter (54.5) $2.4 |
| 21/12/19 @ ASCOT Race 9 #2 MIZLECKI Fred Kersley / Jade McNaught (a0) (58.5) $2.1 |
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Saturday December 14
Suggested Bets (Manual Form) for SATURDAY
No manual bets today
QUADDIES – FLEMINGTON
QUADDIE: 5,9,12 / 2,8,14 / 2,3,4,6,8 / 1,2,7,10,11,13,14
$31.50 = 10%
Suggested Auto Bets:
Auto (Category One) Win Bets (Min $2 Win Odds Required)
| 14/12/19 @ RANDWICK Race 3 #4 MORTON’S FORK Richard Litt / Glen Boss (53) $ |
Auto (2 points clear) Win Bets (Min $2 Win Odds Required)
| 14/12/19 @ EAGLE FARM Race 1 #13 VIENNA POWER Tony Gollan / Jim Byrne (54) |
| 14/12/19 @ MORPHETTVILLE Race 3 #8 LEFT HAND MAN Jon O’Connor / Teagan Voorham (a3) (51) |
| 14/12/19 @ RANDWICK Race 4 #11 DUBAI STAR Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott / Tim Clark (54) |
| 14/12/19 @ FLEMINGTON Race 1 #9 UNSTOPPABELLE Ciaron Maher & David Eustace / Ben Melham (57.5) |
| 14/12/19 @ FLEMINGTON Race 2 #3 BAM’S ON FIRE Ciaron Maher & David Eustace / Jye McNeil (56.5) |
| 14/12/19 @ MORPHETTVILLE Race 5 #1 MELI MELO Barry Brook / Kayla Crowther (a1.5) (59.5) |
| 14/12/19 @ FLEMINGTON Race 3 #1 DOGMATIC Richard Laming / Teodore Nugent (a2) (59.5) |
The Auto (Category One) Place Bets have a good strike rate, but they’re certainly best value when backed early in the week (and it is suggested to only back these at $2 the place or longer and only in races with eight or more runners). The qualifiers at this stage are:
| 14/12/19 @ FLEMINGTON Race 3 #1 DOGMATIC Richard Laming / Teodore Nugent (a2) (59.5) $ |
| 14/12/19 @ FLEMINGTON Race 7 #2 DEFIBRILLATE Patrick Payne / Billy Egan (60) $ |
| 14/12/19 @ FLEMINGTON Race 7 #8 EL DON Peter Gelagotis / Anthony Darmanin (56.5) $ |
| 14/12/19 @ RANDWICK Race 1 #1 STAR REFLECTION Kris Lees / Robbie Dolan (a1.5) (58) $ |
| 14/12/19 @ RANDWICK Race 3 #5 NAVAL WARFARE Chris Waller / Jay Ford (53) $ |
| 14/12/19 @ RANDWICK Race 5 #11 SUPERIUM Joseph Pride / Nash Rawiller (55.5) $ |
| 14/12/19 @ RANDWICK Race 6 #1 IRITHEA Bjorn Baker / Joshua Parr (59) $ |
| 14/12/19 @ RANDWICK Race 7 #1 INVINCIBLE GEM Kris Lees / Hugh Bowman (59) $ |
| 14/12/19 @ RANDWICK Race 9 #1 WHITE BOOTS Kim Waugh / Billy Owen (a3) (59.5) $ |
| 14/12/19 @ EAGLE FARM Race 8 #12 CONSTANT FLIGHT David Vandyke / Jake Bayliss (54) $ |
| 14/12/19 @ MORPHETTVILLE Race 3 #8 LEFT HAND MAN Jon O’Connor / Teagan Voorham (a3) (51) $ |
| 14/12/19 @ MORPHETTVILLE Race 5 #1 MELI MELO Barry Brook / Kayla Crowther (a1.5) (59.5) $ |
The Category Two Place Bets are those who should be in a good position upon straightening and might just be able to hold on for a place at decent odds. The same conditions apply as with the Category One Place Bets. With these, I like to see Sectional Ratings in the top three in the race and I’d also prefer that their Last 400 ratings aren’t hopeless. On those conditions, today’s best are:
| 14/12/19 @ FLEMINGTON Race 1 #9 UNSTOPPABELLE Ciaron Maher & David Eustace / Ben Melham (57.5) $ |
| 14/12/19 @ FLEMINGTON Race 2 #3 BAM’S ON FIRE Ciaron Maher & David Eustace / Jye McNeil (56.5) $ |
| 14/12/19 @ FLEMINGTON Race 4 #3 TYCOON BELLA Cindy Alderson / Luke Currie (58.5) $ |
| 14/12/19 @ FLEMINGTON Race 5 #4 HOLBIEN Steve Richards / Lachlan King (a2) (52) $ |
| 14/12/19 @ RANDWICK Race 2 #1 FEEL THE KNIGHT Emma & Lucy Longmire / Jean Van Overmeire (a2) (57) $ |
| 14/12/19 @ RANDWICK Race 3 #4 MORTON’S FORK Richard Litt / Glen Boss (53) $ |
| 14/12/19 @ RANDWICK Race 4 #11 DUBAI STAR Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott / Tim Clark (54) $ |
| 14/12/19 @ RANDWICK Race 7 #1 INVINCIBLE GEM Kris Lees / Hugh Bowman (59) $ |
| 14/12/19 @ EAGLE FARM Race 4 #11 AXELLA Matthew Dunn / Michael Dee (55.5) $ |
| 14/12/19 @ MORPHETTVILLE Race 1 #1 STENMARK David & B Hayes & T Dabernig / Cory Parish (56.5) $ |
| 14/12/19 @ MORPHETTVILLE Race 1 #5 DIESEL ‘N’ DUST Jason Warren / Kayla Crowther (a1.5) (55) $ |
| 14/12/19 @ MORPHETTVILLE Race 2 #3 DESERT DREAMER Ciaron Maher & David Eustace / Todd Pannell (58) $ |
| 14/12/19 @ MORPHETTVILLE Race 3 #8 LEFT HAND MAN Jon O’Connor / Teagan Voorham (a3) (51) $ |
| 14/12/19 @ MORPHETTVILLE Race 4 #7 ENKI Gordon Richards / Kayla Crowther (a1.5) (55.5) $ |
| 14/12/19 @ MORPHETTVILLE Race 8 #2 DANGER DEAL Leon Macdonald & Andrew Gluyas / Jerry Chau (a3) (55.5) $ |
| 14/12/19 @ MORPHETTVILLE Race 8 #8 RAGING QUEEN Phillip Stokes / Kayla Crowther (a1.5) (54) $ |
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Suggested Bets
Saturday December 7
Suggested Bets (Manual Form) for SATURDAY
No manual bets today
QUADDIES – PAKENHAM
EARLY QUADDIE: 1,2,3,14 / 1,4 / 1,4,9,10,11,12 / 1,2,3,7,10
$24 = 10%
QUADDIE – WIDE: 3,6,7,8,9 / 1,2,4,6,9 / 1,2,4,6,9 / 1,2,5,6,8
$31.25 = 5%
QUADDIE – NARROW: 3,6,7,8 / 2,4,6,9 / 4,9 / 2,6,8
$19.20 = 20%
Suggested Auto Bets:
Auto (Category One) Win Bets (Min $2 Win Odds Required)
| 07/12/19 @ ROSEHILL Race 6 #5 PUMPKIN PIE Richard & Michael Freedman / Brenton Avdulla (58.5) $7.5 |
| 07/12/19 @ MORPHETTVILLE PARKS Race 2 #2 MORVADA Peter Jolly / Gary Lo (a3) (54) $2.5 |
| 07/12/19 @ ASCOT Race 3 #3 JEDAFFAIR Adam Durrant / Joseph Azzopardi (57.5) $4.2 |
| 07/12/19 @ ASCOT Race 6 #1 PERFECT JEWEL Adam Durrant / Chris Parnham (60) $8 |
Auto (2 points clear) Win Bets (Min $2 Win Odds Required)
| 07/12/19 @ PAKENHAM Race 1 #4 CHAMPAGNE BOOM David & B Hayes & T Dabernig / Lewis German (a3) (54.5) |
| 07/12/19 @ PAKENHAM Race 3 #1 JENTICO Tony & Calvin McEvoy / Jessica Eaton (a3) (56.5) |
| 07/12/19 @ MORPHETTVILLE PARKS Race 2 #2 MORVADA Peter Jolly / Gary Lo (a3) (54) |
| 07/12/19 @ PAKENHAM Race 6 #7 OBERLAND Mitchell Freedman / Jessica Eaton (a3) (51.5) |
| 07/12/19 @ ROSEHILL Race 6 #5 PUMPKIN PIE Richard & Michael Freedman / Brenton Avdulla (58.5) |
| 07/12/19 @ ASCOT Race 3 #3 JEDAFFAIR Adam Durrant / Joseph Azzopardi (57.5) |
| 07/12/19 @ PAKENHAM Race 9 #2 KALASHANI LAD Terry Walsh / Thomas Stockdale (a3) (58.5) |
| 07/12/19 @ DOOMBEN Race 9 #7 SOFIE’S GOLD CLASS Debbie Newham / Larry Cassidy (54) |
| 07/12/19 @ ASCOT Race 6 #1 PERFECT JEWEL Adam Durrant / Chris Parnham (60) |
| 07/12/19 @ ASCOT Race 8 #8 REGAL POWER Grant & Alana Williams / Damien Oliver (58.5) |
The Auto (Category One) Place Bets have a good strike rate, but they’re certainly best value when backed early in the week (and it is suggested to only back these at $2 the place or longer and only in races with eight or more runners). The qualifiers at this stage are:
| 07/12/19 @ PAKENHAM Race 5 #7 FUTURE SCORE Matt Cumani / Fred W Kersley (a1.5) (54.5) $4.2 |
| 07/12/19 @ PAKENHAM Race 7 #1 CARZOFF Chris Waller / Ben Melham (60) $2.5 |
| 07/12/19 @ PAKENHAM Race 7 #2 RUNAWAY Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott / Zac Spain (57) $4.8 |
| 07/12/19 @ PAKENHAM Race 8 #9 GALAXY RAIDER Grahame Begg / Jordan Childs (57) $3.5 |
| 07/12/19 @ DOOMBEN Race 7 #9 GOLDFINCH Steve Englebrecht / Deanne Panya (54) $3.1 |
The Category Two Place Bets are those who should be in a good position upon straightening and might just be able to hold on for a place at decent odds. The same conditions apply as with the Category One Place Bets. With these, I like to see Sectional Ratings in the top three in the race and I’d also prefer that their Last 400 ratings aren’t hopeless. On those conditions, today’s best (of those paying $2 or more) are:
| 07/12/19 @ ROSEHILL Race 6 #5 PUMPKIN PIE Richard & Michael Freedman / Brenton Avdulla (58.5) $2.25 |
| 07/12/19 @ DOOMBEN Race 7 #9 GOLDFINCH Steve Englebrecht / Deanne Panya (54) $3.1 |
| 07/12/19 @ DOOMBEN Race 8 #3 NICCANOVA Steve Tregea / James Orman (57.5) $2.4 |
| 07/12/19 @ MORPHETTVILLE PARKS Race 8 #5 BELLA SUCCESS Will Clarken / Todd Pannell (57) $2.9 |
| 07/12/19 @ ASCOT Race 1 #4 AMERICAN CHOICE Simon A Miller / Jade McNaught (a1.5) (52.5) $2.1 |
| 07/12/19 @ ASCOT Race 5 #1 WAR SAINT Neville Parnham / Chris Parnham (59) $2.1 |
| 07/12/19 @ ASCOT Race 5 #3 WIDESPREAD James Cummings / Damien Oliver (56) $3.9 |
| 07/12/19 @ ASCOT Race 6 #1 PERFECT JEWEL Adam Durrant / Chris Parnham (60) $2.25 |
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Saturday November 30
Suggested Bets (Manual Form) for SATURDAY
No manual bets today
QUADDIES
WIDE: 1,4,7 / 1,2 / 4,5,9,10 / 9,10,12,13
$19.20 = 20%
NARROW: 4 / 1 / 9,10 / 9,10
$10 = 250%
Suggested Auto Bets:
Auto (Category One) Win Bets (Min $2 Win Odds Required)
| 30/11/19 @ ASCOT Race 1 #2 COCKNEY CREW Kieran McDonagh / Jade McNaught (a1.5) (57) $3.8 |
Auto (2 points clear) Win Bets (Min $2 Win Odds Required)
| 30/11/19 @ MOONEE VALLEY Race 2 #2 BALAABEL Tony & Calvin McEvoy / Barend Vorster (57.5) |
| 30/11/19 @ ASCOT Race 1 #2 COCKNEY CREW Kieran McDonagh / Jade McNaught (a1.5) (57) |
| 30/11/19 @ ASCOT Race 3 #10 PLUTOCRACY Simon A Miller / Chris Parnham (56) |
| 30/11/19 @ DOOMBEN Race 8 #7 OUTBACK BARBIE Tony Gollan / Jim Byrne (55) |
The Auto (Category One) Place Bets have a good strike rate, but they’re certainly best value when backed early in the week (and it is suggested to only back these at $2 the place or longer and only in races with eight or more runners). The qualifiers at this stage are:
| 30/11/19 @ ROSEHILL Race 5 #11 FEEL THE KNIGHT Emma & Lucy Longmire / Tim Clark (53.5) $2.5 |
| 30/11/19 @ ROSEHILL Race 6 #9 NAVAL WARFARE Chris Waller / Glyn Schofield (54) $6 |
| 30/11/19 @ ROSEHILL Race 7 #10 BOBBING Bernie Kelly / James Innes Jnr (53) $2.15 |
| 30/11/19 @ ROSEHILL Race 8 #5 SPECIAL MISSILE Richard & Michael Freedman / Hugh Bowman (56.5) $8.5 |
| 30/11/19 @ DOOMBEN Race 6 #1 FIGHTING TEO Kevin Kemp / Adin Thompson (a3) (57) $2 |
| 30/11/19 @ DOOMBEN Race 6 #6 ZOURKHAN Chris Waller / Matthew McGillivray (58.5) $5 |
| 30/11/19 @ DOOMBEN Race 6 #12 SKYTREK Barry Lockwood / Corey Bayliss (a2) (52) $11 |
| 30/11/19 @ ASCOT Race 8 #7 VIRIDINE James Cummings / Damien Oliver (58.5) $4.6 |
The Category Two Place Bets are those who should be in a good position upon straightening and might just be able to hold on for a place at decent odds. The same conditions apply as with the Category One Place Bets. With these, I like to see Sectional Ratings in the top three in the race and I’d also prefer that their Last 400 ratings aren’t hopeless. On those conditions, today’s best (of those paying $2 or more) are:
| 30/11/19 @ MOONEE VALLEY Race 1 #8 BAAQYAH David & B Hayes & T Dabernig / Luke Nolen (55) $2.45 |
| 30/11/19 @ ROSEHILL Race 3 #6 FEARNLEY Aiden St Vincent / Jon Grisedale (56) $3 |
| 30/11/19 @ ROSEHILL Race 8 #6 SANDBAR Brad Widdup / Christian Reith (55) $2.6 |
| 30/11/19 @ DOOMBEN Race 1 #6 BLOODBLISTER Wayne Nugent / Ron Goltz (55) $3.4 |
| 30/11/19 @ DOOMBEN Race 4 #6 KALIK Tony Haydon / Brad Stewart (56.5) $2.45 |
| 30/11/19 @ MORPHETTVILLE Race 5 #3 FINAL HEARING Marilyn Smith / Ryan Hurdle (58.5) $2.9 |
| 30/11/19 @ ASCOT Race 4 #9 SON OF BACCHUS Rhys Radford / Craig Staples (55.5) $2.8 |
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Saturday November 23
Suggested Bets (Manual Form) for SATURDAY
No manual bets today
QUADDIES
Ballarat Quaddie #1
1,11,15 / 1,5,9 / 3,7,9,11 / 2,5,9,12,16
$36 = 20%
Ballarat Quaddie #2
1,4,11,14,15 / 1,2,3,5,9,13 / 1,3,6,7,9,11 / 2
$36 = 20%
Suggested Auto Bets:
Auto (Category One) Win Bets (Min $2 Win Odds Required)
| 23/11/19 @ MORPHETTVILLE PARKS Race 6 #7 GOUGERS John Hyam / Anna Jordsjo (a2) (52) $26 |
| 23/11/19 @ ASCOT Race 5 #1 TALLY James Cummings / Damien Oliver (58.5) $5.5 |
New Saturday morning qualifier:
| 23/11/19 @ BALLARAT Race 10 #2 MILWAUKEE Michael Moroney / Michael Poy (a2) (58) $10 |
Auto (2 points clear) Win Bets (Min $2 Win Odds Required)
| 23/11/19 @ BALLARAT Race 2 #3 BAM’S ON FIRE Ciaron Maher & David Eustace / Teodore Nugent (a2) (59.5) |
| 23/11/19 @ MORPHETTVILLE PARKS Race 1 #1 EIGHT OVER EIGHT John Hickmott / Sairyn Fawke (57.5) |
| 23/11/19 @ KEMBLA GRANGE Race 4 #4 PUMPKIN PIE Richard & Michael Freedman / Glen Boss (58.5) |
| 23/11/19 @ KEMBLA GRANGE Race 7 #3 STAR FALL Ciaron Maher & David Eustace / Jean Van Overmeire (a2) (59) |
| 23/11/19 @ ASCOT Race 5 #1 TALLY James Cummings / Damien Oliver (58.5) |
| 23/11/19 @ MORPHETTVILLE PARKS Race 8 #2 FLY FOR YULONG David & B Hayes & T Dabernig / Barend Vorster (59.5) |
The Auto (Category One) Place Bets have a good strike rate, but they’re certainly best value when backed early in the week (and it is suggested to only back these at $2 the place or longer and only in races with eight or more runners). The qualifiers at this stage are:
| 23/11/19 @ BALLARAT Race 3 #12 EL DON Peter Gelagotis / Anthony Darmanin (56) $3.7 |
| 23/11/19 @ BALLARAT Race 10 #2 MILWAUKEE Michael Moroney / Michael Poy (a2) (58) $3.3 |
| 23/11/19 @ KEMBLA GRANGE Race 6 #5 LOOKS LIKE ELVIS Bryan Dais / Blaike McDougall (53.5) $9 |
| 23/11/19 @ KEMBLA GRANGE Race 8 #8 CINQUEDEA Richard & Michael Freedman / Tim Clark (57.5) $3 |
| 23/11/19 @ DOOMBEN Race 7 #8 JADENTOM Lindsay Hatch / James Orman (55.5) $2.5 |
| 23/11/19 @ DOOMBEN Race 8 #8 RHYME NOR RHYTHM Lindsay Hatch / Corey Bayliss (a0) (54) $8.5 |
| 23/11/19 @ MORPHETTVILLE PARKS Race 6 #7 GOUGERS John Hyam / Anna Jordsjo (a2) (52) $6 |
The Category Two Place Bets are those who should be in a good position upon straightening and might just be able to hold on for a place at decent odds. The same conditions apply as with the Category One Place Bets. With these, I like to see Sectional Ratings in the top three in the race and I’d also prefer that their Last 400 ratings aren’t hopeless. On those conditions, today’s best (of those paying $2 or more) are:
| 23/11/19 @ BALLARAT Race 4 #7 LA GIRL David & B Hayes & T Dabernig / Luke Nolen (56) $2.05 |
| 23/11/19 @ BALLARAT Race 4 #10 POUNCE Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes / Dwayne Dunn (56) $2.7 |
| 23/11/19 @ BALLARAT Race 5 #3 CASSIUS David & B Hayes & T Dabernig / Luke Nolen (57) $4.2 |
| 23/11/19 @ ASCOT Race 4 #3 ZIEBELL Luke Fernie / Dean Yendall (55) $2 |
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Saturday November 16
Suggested Bets (Manual Form) for SATURDAY
No manual bets today
QUADDIES
Early Quaddie: 2,6,8 / 1,4 / 1,3,4 / 3,4,5,7
$36 = 50%
Quaddie: 1,2,10 / 1,3,5,10 / 1,3,5,7,10,11 / 1,3,4,5
$28.80 = 20%
Suggested Auto Bets:
Auto (Category One) Win Bets (Min $2 Win Odds Required)
| 16/11/19 @ SANDOWN HILLSIDE Race 3 #2 XILONG Tony & Calvin McEvoy / Luke Currie (56) $2.5 |
| 16/11/19 @ SANDOWN HILLSIDE Race 6 #4 D’BAI Charlie Appleby / James Doyle (59) $2.8 |
| 16/11/19 @ SANDOWN HILLSIDE Race 9 #3 SWEET SCANDAL Chris Waller / Michael Walker (55) $4.8 |
| 16/11/19 @ SANDOWN HILLSIDE Race 10 #1 PACODALI Lindsey Smith / Dean Yendall (59) $5 |
| 16/11/19 @ NEWCASTLE Race 5 #1 RULE THE WORLD Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott / Tim Clark (56.5) $2.05 |
| 16/11/19 @ ASCOT Race 5 #3 MISSISSIPPI DELTA Grant & Alana Williams / William Pike (57) $2.5 |
Auto (2 points clear) Win Bets (Min $2 Win Odds Required)
| 16/11/19 @ SUNSHINE COAST Race 1 #3 WAY BEYOND Stuart Kendrick / Daniel Griffin (58) |
| 16/11/19 @ SANDOWN HILLSIDE Race 3 #2 XILONG Tony & Calvin McEvoy / Luke Currie (56) |
| 16/11/19 @ SUNSHINE COAST Race 2 #7 DAWSON DIVA Garnett Taylor / Ryan Wiggins (57) |
| 16/11/19 @ MORPHETTVILLE PARKS Race 5 #1 MORVADA Peter Jolly / Gary Lo (a3) (58) |
| 16/11/19 @ NEWCASTLE Race 5 #1 RULE THE WORLD Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott / Tim Clark (56.5) |
| 16/11/19 @ ASCOT Race 3 #3 AVIDUS Steele Casey / Clint Johnston-Porter (56.5) |
| 16/11/19 @ SANDOWN HILLSIDE Race 9 #3 SWEET SCANDAL Chris Waller / Michael Walker (55) |
| 16/11/19 @ MORPHETTVILLE PARKS Race 8 #10 LITTLE RICH BOY John Hickmott / Sairyn Fawke (54) |
| 16/11/19 @ ASCOT Race 5 #3 MISSISSIPPI DELTA Grant & Alana Williams / William Pike (57) |
The Auto (Category One) Place Bets have a good strike rate, but they’re certainly best value when backed early in the week (and it is suggested to only back these at $2 the place or longer and only in races with eight or more runners). The qualifiers at this stage are:
| 16/11/19 @ SANDOWN HILLSIDE Race 6 #5 ODEON Mathew Ellerton & Simon Zahra / Linda Meech (59) $3.4 |
| 16/11/19 @ SANDOWN HILLSIDE Race 8 #10 MISS SISKA Grahame Begg / James Doyle (57) $3 |
| 16/11/19 @ SANDOWN HILLSIDE Race 10 #6 MR MONEY BAGS Robbie Griffiths / Jye McNeil (54) $2.35 |
| 16/11/19 @ NEWCASTLE Race 1 #3 MASTER SHUHOOD Chris Waller / James McDonald (56.5) $2.6 |
| 16/11/19 @ NEWCASTLE Race 6 #12 FIESTA Chris Waller / Jay Ford (52) $3.8 |
| 16/11/19 @ NEWCASTLE Race 7 #9 STAR REFLECTION Kris Lees / Hugh Bowman (57) $6.5 |
| 16/11/19 @ SUNSHINE COAST Race 8 #4 TUMULTUOUS Chris Waller / Ryan Maloney (58.5) $6 |
| 16/11/19 @ MORPHETTVILLE PARKS Race 5 #1 MORVADA Peter Jolly / Gary Lo (a3) (58) $2.6 |
The Category Two Place Bets are those who should be in a good position upon straightening and might just be able to hold on for a place at decent odds. The same conditions apply as with the Category One Place Bets. With these, I like to see Sectional Ratings in the top three in the race and I’d also prefer that their Last 400 ratings aren’t hopeless. On those conditions, today’s best (of those paying $2 or more) are:
| 16/11/19 @ SANDOWN HILLSIDE Race 1 #2 GLENFIDDICH Robbie Griffiths / Beau Mertens (57) $2.4 |
| 16/11/19 @ SANDOWN HILLSIDE Race 6 #5 ODEON Mathew Ellerton & Simon Zahra / Linda Meech (59) $3.4 |
| 16/11/19 @ SANDOWN HILLSIDE Race 10 #6 MR MONEY BAGS Robbie Griffiths / Jye McNeil (54) $2.35 |
| 16/11/19 @ MORPHETTVILLE PARKS Race 8 #10 LITTLE RICH BOY John Hickmott / Sairyn Fawke (54) $2.45 |
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Saturday November 9
Suggested Bets (Manual Form) for SATURDAY
FLEMINGTON R1 #2 RANIER
FLEMINGTON R3 #3 KNICKPOINT
FLEMINGTON R4 #5 TRUE SELF
FLEMINGTON R5 #1 SANTA ANA LANE
FLEMINGTON R8 #15 MELODY BELLE
QUADDIES
EARLY QUADDIE:
NARROW: 2,7,8 / 3 / 5 / 1
$15 = 500%
WIDE: 2,7,8 / 1,3,4,11 / 2,5,7,8,12 / 1
$30 = 50%
QUADDIE
NARROW: 7,13 / 3,5,12 / 15 / 4,16
$15 = 125%
WIDE: 7,8,13,15 / 3,5,12 / 1,7,14,15 / 4,8,12,16
$19.20 = 10%
Suggested Auto Bets:
Auto (Category One) Win Bets (Min $2 Win Odds Required)
| 09/11/19 @ FLEMINGTON Race 5 #1 SANTA ANA LANE Anthony Freedman / Mark Zahra (58.5) $2.2 |
| 09/11/19 @ ASCOT Race 3 #5 WESTERN TEMPLE Adam Durrant / William Pike (57.5) $1.5 |
| 09/11/19 @ ASCOT Race 8 #1 GATTING Darren Mcauliffe / Chris Parnham (59) $5 |
Auto (2 points clear) Win Bets (Min $2 Win Odds Required)
| 09/11/19 @ DOOMBEN Race 1 #1 BATTLE THROUGH Bradley Smith / Wayne O’Connell (58) |
| 09/11/19 @ FLEMINGTON Race 1 #2 RANIER James Cummings / Hugh Bowman (58) |
| 09/11/19 @ ASCOT Race 1 #5 STARFIELD IMPACT Mike Santich / Alan Kennedy (55) |
| 09/11/19 @ MORPHETTVILLE PARKS Race 5 #3 MELLORS David & B Hayes & T Dabernig / Barend Vorster (58) |
| 09/11/19 @ ASCOT Race 4 #8 ZIEBELL Luke Fernie / Jade McNaught (a1.5) (54.5) |
| 09/11/19 @ DOOMBEN Race 10 #3 OUTBACK BARBIE Tony Gollan / Jim Byrne (54) |
| 09/11/19 @ ASCOT Race 8 #1 GATTING Darren Mcauliffe / Chris Parnham (59) |
The Auto (Category One) Place Bets have a good strike rate, but they’re certainly best value when backed early in the week (and it is suggested to only back these at $2 the place or longer and only in races with eight or more runners). The qualifiers at this stage are:
| 09/11/19 @ FLEMINGTON Race 4 #11 MAURUS John Thompson / Craig Williams (54) $4.6 |
| 09/11/19 @ FLEMINGTON Race 5 #1 SANTA ANA LANE Anthony Freedman / Mark Zahra (58.5) $1.24 |
| 09/11/19 @ FLEMINGTON Race 6 #6 ANOTHER DOLLAR Chris Waller / James McDonald (55) $4.2 |
| 09/11/19 @ FLEMINGTON Race 8 #5 SUZUKA DEVIOUS Mitsuru Hashida / Michael Dee (59) $12 |
| 09/11/19 @ ROSEHILL Race 3 #4 ANGEL OF HEAVEN Kris Lees / Jason Collett (57.5) $1.3 |
| 09/11/19 @ ROSEHILL Race 5 #1 MAID OF ORE Nick Olive / Billy Owen (a3) (57) $1.3 |
| 09/11/19 @ ROSEHILL Race 7 #4 LUVALUVA John Sargent / Jay Ford (57) $4 |
| 09/11/19 @ DOOMBEN Race 4 #6 THE FIRE TRAP Matthew Dunn / Ron Stewart (54) $NTD |
| 09/11/19 @ DOOMBEN Race 7 #3 FIGHTING TEO Kevin Kemp / Luke Tarrant (57) $1.45 |
| 09/11/19 @ MORPHETTVILLE PARKS Race 7 #8 BRIMARVI VEHERO Sam Burford / Dom Tourneur (54) $2.1 |
The Category Two Place Bets are those who should be in a good position upon straightening and might just be able to hold on for a place at decent odds. The same conditions apply as with the Category One Place Bets. With these, I like to see Sectional Ratings in the top three in the race and I’d also prefer that their Last 400 ratings aren’t hopeless. On those conditions, today’s best (of those paying $2 or more) are:
| 09/11/19 @ FLEMINGTON Race 1 #3 AL PASSEM Ken Keys / Mark Zahra (57) $7 |
| 09/11/19 @ ASCOT Race 1 #5 STARFIELD IMPACT Mike Santich / Alan Kennedy (55) $2.6 |
The rest:
| 09/11/19 @ FLEMINGTON Race 1 #8 SUNDAY PRAY John Moloney / Luke Currie (54) $4.4 |
| 09/11/19 @ FLEMINGTON Race 2 #11 EL DON Peter Gelagotis / Anthony Darmanin (54) $8 |
| 09/11/19 @ ROSEHILL Race 6 #11 DAME GISELLE Peter & Paul Snowden / Andrew Adkins (54.5) $4.2 |
| 09/11/19 @ ROSEHILL Race 7 #4 LUVALUVA John Sargent / Jay Ford (57) $4 |
| 09/11/19 @ ROSEHILL Race 9 #9 HIGH SHINE John Sargent / Chris Williams (a3) (54) $2.25 |
| 09/11/19 @ DOOMBEN Race 9 #2 FABULONH Robert Heathcote / Dale Smith (59) $3.8 |
| 09/11/19 @ MORPHETTVILLE PARKS Race 7 #8 BRIMARVI VEHERO Sam Burford / Dom Tourneur (54) $2.1 |
| 09/11/19 @ ASCOT Race 4 #8 ZIEBELL Luke Fernie / Jade McNaught (a1.5) (54.5) $3.1 |
| 09/11/19 @ ASCOT Race 9 #9 BLACK SABBATH Robert & Todd Harvey / William Pike (55.5) $2.45 |
_______________________
Tuesday November 5
Suggested Bets (Manual Form) for TUESDAY
FLEMINGTON R5 #7 ESPINOLA (WIN)
FLEMINGTON R7 #19 CONSTANTINOPLE (WIN)
FLEMINGTON R7 #7 LATROBE (PLACE)
FLEMINGTON R9 #4 MILWAUKEE (WIN)
FLEMINGTON R10 #5 XILONG (WIN)
QUADDIES
EARLY QUADDIE (Races 2 – 5)
NARROW: 2,6,7 / 3 / 5,7 / 4
$15 = 250%
WIDE: 2,6,7 / 3 / 4,5,7,14,16 / 1,4,7,8,9
$37.50 = 50%
QUADDIE (Races 6 – 9)
NARROW: 7,19 / 8,11 / 4,13 / 4,5,18
$12 = 50%
WIDE: 7,10,11,19,23 / 8,11,12,15,17 / 1,4,6,7,13 / 4,5,6,18
$50 = 10%
Saturday November 2
This run of outs is getting a little ridiculous. Brandenburg looked the winner at the 200, but couldn’t quite reel in Dalasan, who we’ve been on when he’s underperformed at his last two runs…of course. The track was downgraded three times from 9am and was a Soft 7 by the time Bivouac had to take on Exceedance. I’m pretty certain that Bivouac would’ve won if this was one of the first four races on the program. I liked Miami Bound and Warning once the map had established that you didn’t want to be back and wide, but the bets were posted by that stage.
Including the auto win bets, we backed one winner, four seconds and five thirds.
Somehow, the autos would’ve finished in front if we’d waited until Saturday to back Meli Melo, who got out to 60-1 before running second at Morphettville. Overall though, the weekend returned -8.56 units.
Suggested Bets (Manual Form) for SATURDAY
FLEMINGTON R3 #6 BRANDENBURG (WIN) @ $10 – 2nd (-1 unit)
FLEMINGTON R5 #15 FIDELIA (WIN) @ $13 – 10th (-1 unit)
FLEMINGTON R6 #2 BIVOUAC (WIN) @ $3.30 – 2nd (-1 unit)
FLEMINGTON R8 #11 SIKANDARABAD @ $17 – 10th (-1 unit)
FLEMINGTON R9 #4 PIPPIE @ $5 – 2nd (-1 unit)
NET RETURN (Suggested Bets) = -5 units
QUADDIES – SATURDAY
EARLY QUADDIE (Races 2 – 5)
WIDE: 2,5 / 1,2,6 – 8 / 1,3,6 – 8 / 4,5,7,9,10,15 $30 = 10% – 3 legs (-0.3 units)
QUADDIE (Races 6 – 9)
NARROW (1): 2 / 1 – 4 / 3,7,11,13,14 / 4 $10 = 50% – 1 leg (-0.1 units)
NARROW (2): 2 / 1 – 4 / Field / 4 $16 = 25% – 2 legs (-0.16 units)
WIDE: 2,6,12 / 1 – 4,7,8 / 3,7,11,13,14 / 1,2,4,5,12 $45 = 10% – 3 legs (-0.45 units)
Suggested Auto Bets:
Auto (Category One) Win Bets (Min $2 Win Odds Required)
| 02/11/19 @ FLEMINGTON Race 6 #12 LIBERTINI Anthony Cummings / Damien Oliver (55) $4.8 – 3rd (-1 units) |
| 02/11/19 @ ROSEHILL Race 4 #2 SPECIAL REWARD Kris Lees / Samantha Clenton (a2) (58) $1.85 – 6th (-1 unit) |
Auto (2 points clear) Win Bets (Min $2 Win Odds Required)
| 02/11/19 @ ROSEHILL Race 2 #6 GUMSHOE Marc Quinn / Samantha Clenton (a2) (55.5) – 2nd (-1 unit) |
| 02/11/19 @ EAGLE FARM Race 2 #1 ROTHFIRE Robert Heathcote / Jim Byrne (58) – 1st (+1.8 units) |
| 02/11/19 @ FLEMINGTON Race 3 #2 GROUNDSWELL Anthony Freedman / Mark Zahra (57) – 3rd (-1 unit) |
| 02/11/19 @ MORPHETTVILLE Race 2 #5 TUBBY TWO TRACKS Chris Bieg / Raquel Clark (57) – 3rd (-1 unit) |
| 02/11/19 @ EAGLE FARM Race 5 #5 SHALWA Tony Gollan / Baylee Nothdurft (a1.5) (57.5) – 3rd (-1 unit) |
| 02/11/19 @ FLEMINGTON Race 6 #12 LIBERTINI Anthony Cummings / Damien Oliver (55) – 3rd (-1 unit) |
| 02/11/19 @ EAGLE FARM Race 6 #3 HOWWONDERFULLIFEIS Tony Gollan / Baylee Nothdurft (a1.5) (53) – 4th (-1 unit) |
The Auto (Category One) Place Bets have a good strike rate, but they’re certainly best value when backed early in the week (and it is suggested to only back these at $2 the place or longer and only in races with eight or more runners). The qualifiers at this stage (Thursday 11am) are:
| 02/11/19 @ FLEMINGTON Race 5 #1 INVINCIBELLA Chris Waller / John Allen (57) $4.6 – 12th (-1 unit) |
| 02/11/19 @ FLEMINGTON Race 6 #5 COSMIC FORCE Peter & Paul Snowden / Tim Clark (57) $2.7 – 6th (-1 unit) |
| 02/11/19 @ FLEMINGTON Race 8 #4 LIFE LESS ORDINARY Chris Waller / Hugh Bowman (56.5) $6 – 7th (-1 unit) |
| 02/11/19 @ FLEMINGTON Race 9 #1 MANICURE James Cummings / Hugh Bowman (57) $2.25 – 4th (-1 unit) |
| 02/11/19 @ ROSEHILL Race 6 #8 MASTER OF ARTS Richard & Michael Freedman / Christian Reith (54) $4.8 – 10th (-1 unit) |
| 02/11/19 @ ROSEHILL Race 7 #16 MIZZY Anthony Cummings / Jason Collett (55.5) $8 – 3rd (+7 units) |
| 02/11/19 @ ROSEHILL Race 8 #13 FIESTA Chris Waller / Glen Boss (55.5) $6.5 – 10th (-1 unit) |
| 02/11/19 @ ROSEHILL Race 9 #10 CHARRETERA Peter & Paul Snowden / Tommy Berry (56) $2.4 – 6th (-1 unit) |
| 02/11/19 @ EAGLE FARM Race 10 #6 RHYME NOR RHYTHM Lindsay Hatch / Corey Bayliss (a2) (54) $2.9 – 9th (-1 unit) |
The Category Two Place Bets are those who should be in a good position upon straightening and might just be able to hold on for a place at decent odds. The same conditions apply as with the Category One Place Bets. With these, I like to see Sectional Ratings in the top three in the race and I’d also prefer that their Last 400 ratings aren’t hopeless. On those conditions, today’s best (of those paying $2 or more) are:
| 02/11/19 @ MORPHETTVILLE Race 4 #1 MELI MELO Barry Brook / Jason Holder (58.5) $4.6 – 2nd (+3.6 units) |
| 02/11/19 @ ASCOT Race 5 #6 INFLATION Darren Mcauliffe / Ben Paterson (56) $2.05 – 2nd (+1.05 units) |
NET RETURN (Quaddies and Auto Bets) = -3.56 units
_______________________
Friday October 25 & Saturday October 26
Not a great weekend last week with a total return of -7.62 units. We managed to back five win bets that ran second and three place bets that ran fourth. If two or three of those go our way, it’s a very different story. The auto bets pretty much broke even and the top auto selection won 14 races on Saturday after winning 16 last Saturday. Given a few have been won by imports we didn’t have ratings on, the stats are starting to stack up there.
Suggested Bets (Manual Form) for FRIDAY
MOONEE VALLEY R2 #1 WIDGEE TURF – 2nd / R7 #9 BIVOUAC (DOUBLE) @ $3.70 – 6th (-1 unit)
MOONEE VALLEY R4 #8 NOVEMBER MAN (WIN) @ $5.50 – 5th (-1 unit)
MOONEE VALLEY R8 #9 SOMETHING SILVER @ $5 – 5th (-1 unit)
Suggested Bets (Manual Form) for SATURDAY
MOONEE VALLEY R4 #9 HINT OF MINT (PLACE) @ $2.20 – 4th (-1 unit)
MOONEE VALLEY R5 #1 CONDO’S EXPRESS (WIN) @ $3 – 2nd (-1 unit)
MOONEE VALLEY R6 #2 INDEPENDENT ROAD (PLACE) @ $2.25 – 4th (-1 unit)
MOONEE VALLEY R7 #7 HUMIDOR (WIN) @ $3.50 – 4th (-1 unit)
NET RETURN (Suggested Bets) = -6 units
QUADDIES – FRIDAY
EARLY QUADDIE (Races 1 – 4)
NARROW: 5,8 / 1 / 1,4,5,10 / 1,6,7,8 $32 = 100% – 2 legs (-0.32 units)
QUADDIE (Races 5 – 8)
NARROW: 3,13 / 1,4,5,6 / 9 / 7,9 $32 = 200% – 1 leg (-0.32 units)
QUADDIES – SATURDAY
EARLY QUADDIE (Races 3 – 6)
NARROW: 1,3,4,6 / 3,9 / 1 / 1,2 $16 = 100% – 1 leg (-0.16 units)
WIDE: 1,3,4,6 / 1,3,6,9 / 1,2,11 / 1,2,5,9 $19.20 = 10% – 2 legs (-0.2 units)
QUADDIE (Races 7 – 10)
NARROW: 4,6,7 / 1,3,5 / 7,9,12 / 4,5 $27 = 50% – 2 legs (-0.27 units)
WIDE: 4,6,7,9 / 1,3,5 – 7,9,10 / 7 – 12 / 4 – 6 $25.20 = 5% – 2 legs (-0.26 units)
NET RETURN (Quaddies) = -1.52 units
Suggested Auto Bets:
Auto (Category One) Win Bets (Min $2 Win Odds Required)
| 26/10/19 @ MOONEE VALLEY Race 4 #3 VILLAMI Gerald Ryan / James McDonald (55) $2.15 – 3rd (-1 unit) |
| 26/10/19 @ RANDWICK Race 4 #5 GREYWORM Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes / Brenton Avdulla (55) $2.4 – 1st (+1.4 units) |
| 26/10/19 @ EAGLE FARM Race 9 #4 MEET MR TAYLOR Kelly Schweida / Mark Du Plessis (56.5) $2.2 – 2nd (-1 unit) |
Auto (2 points clear) Win Bets (Min $2 Win Odds Required)
| 25/10/19 @ MOONEE VALLEY Race 2 #1 WIDGEE TURF Patrick Payne / Billy Egan (61) – 2nd (-1 unit) |
| 25/10/19 @ MOONEE VALLEY Race 6 #5 PARSIFAL Will Clarken / Damian Lane (56.5) – 1st (+1.8 units) |
| 25/10/19 @ MOONEE VALLEY Race 7 #9 BIVOUAC James Cummings / Kerrin McEvoy (53) – 6th (no bet) |
| 26/10/19 @ EAGLE FARM Race 1 #1 SPIRIT ONE Tony & Maddysen Sears / Corey Bayliss (a2) (56) – 1st (+2.4 units) |
| 26/10/19 @ MORPHETTVILLE PARKS Race 1 #1 LADY NATURALISTE Matt Cumani / Jerry Chau (a3) (56) – 2nd (-1 unit) |
| 26/10/19 @ EAGLE FARM Race 9 #4 MEET MR TAYLOR Kelly Schweida / Mark Du Plessis (56.5) – 2nd (-1 unit) |
The Auto (Category One) Place Bets have a good strike rate, but they’re certainly best value when backed early in the week (and it is suggested to only back these at $2 the place or longer and only in races with eight or more runners). The qualifiers at this stage (Thursday 11am) are:
| 26/10/19 @ MOONEE VALLEY Race 7 #9 ALFARRIS David & B Hayes & T Dabernig / Kerrin McEvoy (55) $5 – 7th (-1 unit) |
| 26/10/19 @ MOONEE VALLEY Race 8 #6 DREAM CASTLE Saeed Bin Suroor / Patrick Cosgrave (59) $4.2 – 11th (-1 unit) |
| 26/10/19 @ RANDWICK Race 9 #3 SURE KNEE Chris Waller / Glyn Schofield (59) $2.15 – 8th (-1 unit) |
The Category Two Place Bets are those who should be in a good position upon straightening and might just be able to hold on for a place at decent odds. The same conditions apply as with the Category One Place Bets. With these, I like to see Sectional Ratings in the top three in the race and I’d also prefer that their Last 400 ratings aren’t hopeless. On those conditions, today’s best (of those paying $2 or more) are:
| 25/10/19 @ MOONEE VALLEY Race 5 #2 GREYSFUL GLAMOUR Mark Newnham / Rachel King (59.5) $2.1 – 1st (+1.1 units) |
| 26/10/19 @ MOONEE VALLEY Race 1 #10 BELLA NIPOTINA David & B Hayes & T Dabernig / Jamie Kah (55) $4.2 – 2nd (+3.2 units) |
| 26/10/19 @ MOONEE VALLEY Race 4 #1 WAYUPINTHESKY Peter & Paul Snowden / Damian Lane (56.5) $2 – 5th (-1 unit) |
| 26/10/19 @ MOONEE VALLEY Race 10 #2 GIRL TUESDAY Chris Waller / Nash Rawiller (59) $2.25 – 4th (-1 unit) |
NET RETURN (Auto Bets) = -0.1 units
_____________________________________________
Saturday October 19
We had a bit of a day out, picking four winners and two seconds with top manual selections from the ten races on the Caulfield program. The auto selections came to the party, also, with 16 winners on top across the 47 races at the five major Metropolitan meetings. Overall, we managed a return of +7.47 units. If Santa Ana Lane hadn’t been held up at the worst possible time (strategically, by the winner) it could’ve been a considerably bigger day.
Suggested Bets (Manual Form) for Saturday
CAULFIELD R2 #3 PRETTY BRAZEN (WIN) @ $3.3 – 1st (+2.3 units)
CAULFIELD R4 #5 BRILLIANT VENTURE (PLACE) @ $5.5 – 3rd (+4.5 units)
CAULFIELD R7 #4 MISS LEONIDAS @ $3.7 – 1st (+2.7 units)
RANDWICK R7 #1 SANTA ANA LANE @ $4.4 – 2nd (-1 unit)
CAULFIELD R9 BOXED QUINELLA #4,6,11,12,16 (-1 unit)
NET RETURN (Suggested Bets) = +7.5 units
QUADDIES
EARLY QUADDIE (Races 3 – 6)
NARROW: 3,7 / 3,5,7,8 / 3,4 / 7,14 $32 = 100% – 1 leg (-0.32 units)
WIDE: 1,2,3,7 / 3,5,7,8,10 / 3,4 / 1,2,7,14 $16 = 10% – 1 leg (-0.16 units)
QUADDIE (Races 7 – 10)
NARROW: 4,9 / 1,2,9 / 4,6,11,12,16 / 6,7,8,10,11 $30 = 20% – 2 legs (-0.3 units)
WIDE: 1,4,8,9 / 1,2,4,6,9 / 2,4,6,11,12,16 / 4,6,7,8,10,11 $36 = 5% – 3 legs (-0.36 units)
BIG6 (Races 5- 10)
NARROW: 3,4 / 7,14 / 4,9 / 1,2,9 / 4,6 / 6,7,8,10,11 $24 = 10% – 2 legs (-0.24 units)
Suggested Auto Bets:
Auto (Category One) Win Bets
CAULFIELD R4 #1 PROPHET’S THUMB @ $4.8 – 3rd (-1 unit)
Auto (2 points clear) Win Bets
EAGLE FARM R2 #1 GOTTA KISS – 2nd (-1 unit)
RANDWICK R6 #1 BRUTAL ($2 required) – 3rd (no bet)
ASCOT R8 #3 ACTION – 11th (-1 unit)
The Auto (Category One) Place Bets have a good strike rate, but they’re certainly best value when backed early in the week (and it is suggested to only back these at $2 the place or longer and only in races with eight or more runners). The qualifiers at this stage (Thursday 11am) are:
| Time | Track | Race | Horse# | HorseName | FINISH | RETURN |
| 15:10 | CAULFIELD | 6 | 4 | snapdancer ($2.50) | 11th | -1 unit |
| 15:45 | CAULFIELD | 7 | 8 | not enough effort ($2.40) | 8th | -1 unit |
| 16:15 | RANDWICK | 7 | 12 | yes yes yes ($3) | 1st | +2 units |
| 16:30 | CAULFIELD | 8 | 4 | streets of avalon ($2.30) | 1st | +1.3 units |
| 17:15 | CAULFIELD | 9 | 18 | wolfe ($6) | 13th | -1 unit |
| 17:50 | CAULFIELD | 10 | 6 | savatiano ($2.50) | 1st | +1.5 units |
The Category Two Place Bets are those who should be in a good position upon straightening and might just be able to hold on for a place at decent odds. The same conditions apply as with the Category One Place Bets. With these, I like to see Sectional Ratings in the top three in the race and I’d also prefer that their Last 400 ratings aren’t hopeless. On those conditions, today’s best (of those paying $2 or more) are:
| Time | Track | Race | Horse# | HorseName | FINISH | RETURN |
| 13:13 | EAGLE FARM | 2 | 4 | mishani machine ($2.20) | 3rd | +1.2 units |
| 14:11 | MORPHETTVILLE | 2 | 2 | pearl dragon ($2) | 10th | -1 unit |
| 16:30 | CAULFIELD | 8 | 4 | streets of avalon ($2.30) | 1st | +1.3 units |
| 17:42 | ASCOT | 4 | 2 | harry thomas ($2.05) | 1st | +1.05 units |
NET RETURN (Auto Bets) = -0.03 units
_____________________________________________
Saturday October 12
No excuses this week. The horses selected ran below expectation. Dwayne Dunn on Renewal seemed to panic about the apparent lack of speed and sat a lot further forward than usual. That may have dulled his sprint a little, but he was a bit flat anyway. Similarly, Loving Gaby prefers to go back, but California Zimbol absolutely got her own way out in front. Homesman ran flat, as did Dalasan, who looked as though he may have had enough this time in. Bons Away sat behind Trekking, which I was a little worried about, but he wasn’t good enough anyway.
The Auto Bets kept their head above water (and the non-qualifiers actually did a lot better than the qualifiers), so there’s some hope there. Overall, though, the net return was -6.29 units.
Suggested Bets (Manual Form) for Saturday at Caulfield
R2 #2 Renewal – 3rd (-1 unit)
R3 #2 Loving Gaby – 2nd (-1 unit)
R7 #7 Homesman – 6th (-1 unit)
R8 #2 Dalasan – 5th (-1 unit)
R10 #8 Bons Away – 5th (-1 unit)
NET RETURN (Suggested Bets) = -5 units
QUADDIES
EARLY QUADDIE (Races 3 – 6)
NARROW: 2 / 1,10,11 / 3,9,11,12,13 / 1,3,4,6,7,10 $30 = 33% – 2 legs (-0.3 units)
WIDE: 2,5,6,8 / 1,2,4,7,9,10,11 / 3,4,9,11,12,13 / 3,4 $33.60 = 10% – 3 legs (-0.34 units)
QUADDIE (Races 7 – 10)
NARROW: 2,5,7 / 2 / 11,14 / 1,2,3,4,8 $30 = 100% – 1 leg (-0.3 units)
WIDE: 2,5,6,7 / 2,3,4,10,18 / 3,11,12,13,14 / 2,3,8 $30 = 10% – 2 legs (-0.3 units)
BIG6 (Races 5- 10)
NARROW: 3,9,11,13 / 3,4 / 5,7 / 2,4 / 11,14 / 2,3,8 $19.2 = 10% – 3 legs (-0.19 units)
NET RETURN (Quaddies) = -1.43 units
Suggested Auto Bets:
Auto (Category One) Win Bets
Caulfield R2 #1 Pacodali @ $35 – 4th (-1 unit)
Randwick R2 #4 Milk Man* @ $4.4 – 6th (-1 unit)
Caulfield R7 #7 Homesman @ $4 – 6th (-1 unit)
* new qualifier (after scratchings)
Auto (2 points clear) Win Bets
Eagle Farm R2 #11 Mishani Vandal @ $20 – 2nd (-1 unit)
Caulfield R6 #3 Flit @ $2.3 – 1st (+1.3 units)
Morphettville R4 #9 Aten @ $2.4 – 9th (-1 unit)
Caulfield R7 #7 Homesman @ $4 – 6th (-1 unit)
Ascot R9 #8 Western King @ $13 – 13th (-1 unit)
The Auto (Category One) Place Bets have a good strike rate, but they’re certainly best value when backed early in the week (and it is suggested to only back these at $2 the place or longer and only in races with eight or more runners). The qualifiers at this stage (Thursday 11am) are:
Randwick R3 #2 Quackerjack @ $2.15 – 3rd (+1.15 units)
Caulfield R5 #4 Glory Days @ $2.8 – 9th (-1 unit)
Caulfield R6 #7 Missile Mantra @ $2.7 – 2nd (+1.7 units)
Caulfield R7 #8 Gatting @ $4.4 – 10th (-1 unit)
Caulfield R8 #18 Groundswell @ $4.2 – 3rd (+3.2 units)
Caulfield R9 #18 Miss Siska @ $6 – 8th (-1 unit)
Randwick R8 #10 Mizzy @ $2.2 – 3rd (+1.2 units)
Caulfield R10 #1 Ball Of Muscle @ $2.35 – 2nd (+1.35 units)
The Category Two Place Bets are those who should be in a good position upon straightening and might just be able to hold on for a place at decent odds. The same conditions apply as with the Category One Place Bets. With these, I like to see Sectional Ratings in the top three in the race and I’d also prefer that their Last 400 ratings aren’t hopeless. On those conditions, today’s best (of those paying $2 or more) are:
Caulfield R2 #1 Pacodali @ $8 – 4th (-1 unit)
Eagle Farm R2 #11 Mishani Vandal @ $4.6 – 2nd (+3.6 units)
Caulfield R5 #4 Glory Days @ $2.8 – 9th (-1 unit)
Caulfield R5 #12 Super Titus @ $5 – 10th (-1 unit)
The Auto Quaddies appear to represent value when there are no more than 200 combinations. These bets will be recorded as a 50% stake each week. (For example, if there are 130 combinations, this will be recorded as a $65 outlay for 50% of the dividend, if successful). This week’s Auto Quaddies are:
Eagle Farm (Early): 11 / 2,5,8 / 2,3,4,5 / 1,2,3,4,5,7 = 72 combinations $36 = 50% – 3 legs (-0.36 units)
NET RETURN (Auto Bets) = +0.14 units
_____________________________________________
Saturday October 5
The horror run continued into a second week and, unfortunately for followers, I could see it unfolding after only a couple of races. The spot to be at Flemington was forward on the fence, which gave my swoopers very little chance. Angelic Ruler and Ventura Storm couldn’t find the fence, while horses of equal or lesser ability sat inside them and featured in the finish. Every horse wanted the fence in the Gilgai, meaning that the straight race was run in three lanes (most races down the straight have runners spread across about six lanes), meaning Santa Ana Lane was forced to sit six lengths off the speed, rather than the four he would’ve been if they’d spread out. I think this cost him the race in the end.
The Auto Bets just about broke even (-0.25 units) and if Te Akau Shark had put his nose down at the right time, we nearly break even overall for the day. On the whole, we returned -6.56 units for the day, so we’re going to have to turn it around pretty quickly.
Suggested Bets (Manual Form) for Saturday at Flemington
R4 #6 ANGELIC RULER [0.1] – 3rd (-1 unit)
R5 #4 THE LIFELINE [ 0.1] – 8th (-1 unit)
R6 #1 SANTA ANA LANE [0.2] – 2nd (-1 unit)
R7 #3 MR QUICKIE [0.3] – 10th (-1 unit)
R8 #4 VENTURA STORM [0.05] – 4th (-1 unit)
NET RETURN (Suggested Bets) = -5 units
QUADDIES
EARLY QUADDIE (Races 2 – 5)
NARROW: 3,7 / 10,12,13 / 6,8 / 2,4 [0.025] $24 = 100% – 1 leg (-0.24 units)
WIDE: 3,5,7 / 4,7,10,12,13 / 2,4,5,6,8 / 2,3,4,5,9 [0.0375] $37.50 = 10% – 1 leg (-0.375 units)
QUADDIE (Races 6 – 9)
NARROW: 1 / 3,5 / 3,4,9,10 / 2,6,7,9,11,12 [0.05] $24 = 50% – 1 leg (-0.24 units)
WIDE: 1,5,6,7,8 / 1,2,3,4,5,8 / 3,4,7,9,10 / 7,11,12 [0.05] $45 = 10% – 3 legs (-0.45 units)
NET RETURN (Quaddies) = -1.305 units
Suggested Auto Bets:
Auto (Category One) Win Bets
Saturday:
Randwick R4 #1 Funstar @ $1.80 (need $2) – 1st (no bet)
Randwick R5 #2 Classique Legend @ $2.45 – 3rd (-1 unit)
Auto (2 points clear) Win Bets
Friday:
Moonee Valley R1 #6 Meteorite @ $2.3 – 1st (+1.3 units)
Moonee Valley R5 #9 Sartorial Splendor @ $3.1 – 3rd (-1 unit)
Moonee Valley R7 #3 Banger @ $3.8 – 5th (-1 unit)
Saturday:
Randwick R7 #4 Te Akau Shark @ $6.5 – 2nd (-1 unit)
Morphettville Parks R9 #1 So We Are @ $3 – 8th (-1 unit)
The Auto (Category One) Place Bets have a good strike rate, but they’re certainly best value when backed early in the week (and it is suggested to only back these at $2 the place or longer and only in races with eight or more runners). The qualifiers at this stage (Thursday 9am) are:
Saturday:
Flemington R4 #11 Dawn Dawn* @ $5.5 – 10th (-1 unit)
Randwick R7 #5 Gem Song @ $3.5 – 4th (-1 unit)
Flemington R7 #6 Finche @ $2.6 – 2nd (+1.6 units)
Randwick R8 #3 Grey Lion* @ $6 – 10th (-1 unit)
Flemington R8 #10 Wolfe @ $2.45 – 3rd (+1.45 units)
The Category Two Place Bets are those who should be in a good position upon straightening and might just be able to hold on for a place at decent odds. The same conditions apply as with the Category One Place Bets. With these, I like to see Sectional Ratings in the top three in the race and I’d also prefer that their Last 400 ratings aren’t hopeless. On those conditions, today’s best (of those paying $2 or more) are:
Friday:
Moonee Valley R2 #2 Ginny Ann @ $2.05 – 9th (-1 unit)
Moonee Valley R5 #11 Hearty Lass @ $2.8 – 1st (+1.8 units)
Moonee Valley R7 #2 Toolbar @ $2.05 – 6th (-1 unit)
Saturday:
Randwick R3 #3 Penske* @ $2.2 – 3rd (+1.2 units)
Morphettville Parks R7 #5 Instigator @ $2.25 – 3rd (+1.25 units)
Morphettville Parks R8 #2 Tongsai Boss @ $2.15 – 2nd (+1.15 units)
NET RETURN (Auto Bets) = -0.25 units
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Friday September 27, Saturday September 28 & Sunday September 29
Well, I suppose the glass one-tenth full approach would be to conclude that it’s better to get an absolute wipeout out of the way before we get too deep into the Spring. The manual bets finished a paltry 0.2 units ahead off the back of two wins and five minor placings from eleven bets. The writing was on the wall when Dalasan took too long to wind up, but he was incredibly impressive late and should be primed for the Guineas now. Homesman was outlasted by a nine year old straight out of the nursing home then Zoustyle managed to get beaten with a kick on the siren from behind the centre line.
Not one Auto win bet won, though six of them did place, resulting in a demoralising result of -12.59 units. At least the Tigers won, I suppose.
Suggested Bets (Manual Form) for Sunday @ Caulfield:
R1 #11 Room To Rhyme (Win) @ $9 – 8th (-1 unit)
R2 #7 Prophet’s Thumb (Win) @ $4.2 – 1st (+3.2 units)
R5 #3 Dalasan (Win) @ $2.25 – 2nd (-1 unit)
R7 #8 Homesman (Win) @ $2.3 – 2nd (-1 unit)
R8 #9 Zoustyle (Win) @ $3.7 – 2nd (-1 unit)
R9 #8 Revlis (Win) @ $15 – 7th (-1 unit)
Suggested Bets (Manual Form) for Friday @ Moonee Valley:
R4 #5 Not Enough Effort (Win) @ $5 – 3rd (-1 unit)
R5 #5 Villami (Win) @ $4 – 3rd (-1 unit)
R6 #6 Kentucky Breeze (Win) @ $2.6 – 4th (-1 unit)
R7 #13 Winter Bride (Each Way) @ $35 / $9 – 13th (-1 unit)
R8 #14 Lagerfeld (Win) @ $7 – 1st (+6 units)
NET RETURN (Suggested Bets) = +0.2 units
QUADDIES for Sunday @ Caulfield:
EARLY QUADDIE:
Wide: 6,7 / 2,3,4,6,11,13 / 1,2,4,6,10 / 3,4,14 $18 = 10% – 2 legs (-0.18 units)
Narrow: 6,7 / 2,6 / 2,4,6,10 / 3 $16 = 100% – 2 legs (-0.16 units)
QUADDIE:
Wide: 1,2,3,7 / 1,7,8,13 / 6,9,13,15 / 6,8,11,15,17 $32 = 10% – 1 leg (-0.32 units)
Narrow: 1,2,3,7 / 7,8 / 9,15 / 8,11,17 $24 = 50% – 1 leg (-0.24 units)
QUADDIES for Saturday @ Rosehill:
QUADDIE:
Wide: 9,10 / 2,4,5 / 1,2,3,4,5 / 3,4,6,7,8,10,11 $21 = 10% – 3 legs (-0.21 units)
Narrow: 9,10 / 2 / 1,3,4 / 3,4,6,7,8,10,11 $21 = 50% – 2 legs (-0.21 units)
QUADDIES for Friday @ Moonee Valley:
EARLY QUADDIE:
Wide: 1,3,5 / 1,2,7 / 3,5,8,10 / 2,3,5,9,10 $18 = 10% – 3 legs (-0.18 units)
Narrow: 1 / 1,2 / 3,8 / 2,3,5,9,10 $20 = 100% – 2 legs (-0.2 units)
QUADDIE:
Wide: 1,3,4,5,6,11,14 / 1,2,5,6,8 / 1,3,5,6,7,11,13 / 14 $24.50 = 10% – 3 legs (-0.25 units)
Narrow: 1,5 / 2,6,8 / 5,13 / 1,3,6,14 $24 = 50% – 2 legs (-0.24 units)
NET RETURN (Quaddies) = -2.19 units
Suggested Auto Bets:
Auto (Category One) Win Bets
Friday:
Moonee Valley R5 #5 Villami @ $4 – 3rd (-1 unit)
Moonee Valley R6 #2 Glory Days @ $9 – 5th (-1 unit)
Saturday:
Doomben R5 #3 Another Dollar @ $9.5 – 7th (-1 unit)
Rosehill R5 #2 Champagne Cuddles @ $4.2 – 2nd (-1 unit)
Belmont R8 #8 Lady Cosmology @ $3.8 – 4th (-1 unit)
Auto (2 points clear) Win Bets
Friday:
Moonee Valley R1 #1 King Of Hastings @ $2.2 – 2nd (-1 unit)
Moonee Valley R2 #2 Legionnaire @ $4 – 4th (-1 unit)
Moonee Valley R5 #5 Villami @ $4 – 3rd (-1 unit)
Saturday:
Morphettville Parks R5 #7 Star Status @ $6 – 3rd (-1 unit)
Doomben R8 #2 Meet Mr Taylor @ $1.9 (need $2) – no bet
Morphettville Parks R6 #5 Lady Young @ $2.5 – 7th (-1 unit)
Morphettville Parks R7 #10 East Indiaman @ $3.4 – 3rd (-1 unit)
The Auto (Category One) Place Bets have a good strike rate, but they’re certainly best value when backed early in the week (and it is suggested to only back these at $2 the place or longer and only in races with eight or more runners). The qualifiers at this stage (Thursday 9am) are:
Friday:
Moonee Valley R4 #5 Not Enough Effort @ $2 – 3rd (+1 unit)
Moonee Valley R6 #2 Glory Days @ $2.8 – 5th (-1 unit)
Moonee Valley R7 #1 Ball Of Muscle @ $4.6 – 15th (-1 unit)
Saturday:
Doomben R7 #12 Brook Magic @ $2.6 – 9th (-1 unit)
Rosehill R8 #3 Subedar @ $2 – 2nd (+1 unit)
Rosehill R9 #3 Baller @ $2.15 – 7th (-1 unit)
Belmont R8 #1 Great Shot @ $2.3 – 3rd (+1.3 units)
Sunday:
Caulfield R8 #11 Haunted @ $3.5 – 3rd (+2.5 units)
The Category Two Place Bets are those who should be in a good position upon straightening and might just be able to hold on for a place at decent odds. The same conditions apply as with the Category One Place Bets. With these, I like to see Sectional Ratings in the top three in the race and I’d also prefer that their Last 400 ratings aren’t hopeless. On those conditions, today’s best (of those paying $2 or more) are:
Friday:
Moonee Valley R6 #2 Glory Days @ $2.8 – 5th (-1 unit)
Moonee Valley R6 #5 Captain Cook @ $2.35 – 1st (+1.35 units)
Saturday:
Rosehill R2 #1 Jumper Leads @ $3.3 – 8th (-1 unit)
Rosehill R8 #3 Subedar @ $2 – 2nd (+1 unit)
Doomben R9 #1 Oink @ $2.25 – 1st (+1.25 units)
Morphettville Parks R4 #1 Silent Warrior @ $3.4 – 5th (-1 unit)
Belmont R1 #5 Indisisive @ $2.3 – 8th (-1 unit)
Belmont R2 #1 Prized Nemesis @ $3 – 6th (-1 unit)
NET RETURN (All Auto Bets) = -10.6 units
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Saturday September 21
Well, we pulled one out of the fire yesterday and recorded our fifth straight profit, albeit by a small margin. We ended up +1.2 units on the day after some pretty unpredictable results or moderate tipping, depending on which way you look at it. As I’ve said previously, it’s a very good sign when you can record a profit even when you’re not seeing them that well. And it could’ve been a monster day with a small misreading of the market costing us dearly. I backed One More Try the place on Wednesday at $7.50. When I woke up on Thursday morning, her win odds had blown from 40-1 to 90-1. Her new place odds were around the $14 mark (she paid $14.30 on the tote). Still, we can’t be too upset. Had she had worse luck in running, she would’ve missed a place and we would’ve lost on the day.
Suggested Bets (Manual Form):
Caulfield
R1 #6 Firstclass Dreamer (Win) @ $3.2 (Neds) – 2nd (-1 unit)
R7 #14 Begood Toya Mother (Win) @ $3 (Pointsbet) – 1st (+2 units)
R8 #1 Kooweerup (Win) @ $5.5 (Sportsbet) – 9th (-1 unit)
NET RETURN (Suggested Bets) = 0 units
QUADDIES
EARLY QUADDIE:
Wide: 1,2,3,5,10 / 1,3,4,6,9,10 / 5,6,8,12 / 4,8 $24 = 10% – 1 leg (-0.24 units)
Narrow: 1,3,5 / 1,9,10 / 5,6,8 / 3,4,8,9 $21.60 = 20% – 0 legs (-0.22 units)
QUADDIE:
Wide*: 4,5,9,11,14 / 3,5,12,14 / 1,5,11,16 / 1,4,5,11 $32 = 10% – 2 legs (-0.32 units)
Narrow: 5,9 / 5,14 / 1 / 5,11 $12 = 150% – 2 legs (-0.12 units)
NET RETURN (Quaddies) = -0.9 points
Suggested Auto Bets:
* denotes added Saturday morning after scratchings
Auto (Category One) Win Bets
Randwick R4 #1 Libertini @ $1.95 (need $2) – 3rd (no bet)
Randwick R5 #3 Avantage @ $5.5 – 8th (-1 unit)
*Randwick R6 #6 Classique Legend @ $3.4 – 2nd (-1 unit)
Auto (2 points clear) Win Bets
Eagle Farm R1 #3 Jay Jay D’ar @ $3.7 – 3rd (-1 unit)
Randwick R1 #7 Major Danger @ $5.5
*Morphettville R1 #2 Floreat Pica @ $6 – 2nd (-1 unit)
Randwick R4 #1 Libertini @ $1.95 (need $2) – 3rd (no bet)
Morphettville R6 #5 Zarace @ $9 – 1st (+8 units)
Belmont R5 #1 Velago @ $4.4 – 2nd (-1 unit)
Morphettville R8 #4 Stealthy Lucas @ $10 – 10th (-1 unit)
The Auto (Category One) Place Bets have a good strike rate, but they’re certainly best value when backed early in the week (and it is suggested to only back these at $2 the place or longer and only in races with eight or more runners). The qualifiers at this stage (Thursday 9am) are:
Randwick R1 #7 Major Danger @ $2.15
Caulfield R4 #8 So Taken @ $2.4 – 6th (-1 unit)
Caulfield R5 #11 Tofane @ $2.45 – 12th (-1 unit)
Caulfield R6 #14 Wolfe @ $2.25 – 5th (-1 unit)
Randwick R7 #10 Con Te Partiro @ $7.5
Caulfield R7 #15 Age of Chivalry @ $3.3 – 2nd (+2.3 units)
Randwick R8 #7 Grey Lion @ $9.5 – 4th (-1 unit)
The Category Two Place Bets are those who should be in a good position upon straightening and might just be able to hold on for a place at decent odds. The same conditions apply as with the Category One Place Bets. With these, I like to see Sectional Ratings in the top three in the race and I’d also prefer that their Last 400 ratings aren’t hopeless. On those conditions, today’s best (of those paying $2 or more) are:
Randwick R1 #7 Major Danger @ $2.15
Eagle Farm R2 #4 Jake’s Hill @ $2
Morphettville R2 #2 Bella Success @ $2.3
Caulfield R4 #2 One More Try @ $7.5 – 3rd (+6.5 units)
Eagle Farm R8 #1 Abdon @ $3.9
Caulfield R9 #6 Mystyko @ $4.8
*Saturday morning qualifiers (after scratchings):
Randwick R4 #6 Let It Pour @ $2.45 – 7th (-1 unit)
Eagle Farm R6 #9 Miss Shanti @ $2.4 – 8th (-1 unit)
Morphettville R6 #3 Aussie Jack @ $3.1 – 6th (-1 unit)
Belmont R6 #6 Sugar Cain @ $2.45 – 7th (-1 unit)
Caulfield R9 #1 Order Of Command @ $2.1 – 6th (-1 unit)
Morphettville R8 #4 Stealthy Lucas @ $3 – 10th (-1 unit)
Belmont R9 #1 Alpha Sky @ $2.3 – 2nd (+1.3 units)
NET RETURN (All Auto Bets) = +2.1 units
____________________________________________________________________________________________
Saturday September 14
A fourth straight profitable weekend since the publication of Suggested Bets, with an official return of +6.87 points on the day. Again, there were plenty of reasons to be optimistic about the Auto Bets moving forward. In summary:
We were on the wrong side of the market moves on Meet Mr Taylor (shortened, no bet, won) and God of Thunder (drifted, qualified, lost)
Scratchings forced us to add two Category One Win Bets that both lost.
Three of our six Category One Place Bets ran fourth.
Four of our six Auto (Two points clear) Bets won, but one of these didn’t reach $2. Four of the ten horses who were also two points clear, but didn’t quite have the sectional ratings to back, also won.
My auto ratings pushed me towards Wayupinthesky (and, to a lesser extent, Legionnaire) early in the week at double figures, but I knew better.
To record a profit when market moves don’t go your way and you make some mistakes in your ratings analyses is an encouraging sign. Here are the individual results. The prices indicate the available price when the particular bet was published.
Suggested Bets (Manual Form):
Flemington
R4 #14 Tarwin (Win) @ $8 – 9th (-1 unit)
R5 #5 Dalasan (Win) @ $2.8 – 1st (+1.8 units)
R6 #2 Spanish Whisper (Win) @ $6 – 1st (+5 units)
R7 #1 Hartnell (Win) @ $11 – 4th (-1 unit)
R9 #17 Laure Me In (Win) @ $5.5 – 6th (-1 unit)
NET RETURN (Suggested Bets) = +3.8 points
QUADDIES
EARLY QUADDIE:
1,3,6,7,10,13,15 / 7,10,11,12 / 4,10,14 / 5 $42 = 50% – 3 legs (-0.42 units)
QUADDIE:
Wide: 2,5,6,7,9 / 1,3,4,7,13 / 2,10,11 / 2,6,13,14,17 $37.50 = 10% – 2 legs (-0.38 units)
Narrow: 2 / 1,3,4 / 2,10,11 / 2,6,13,17 $18 = 50% – 2 legs (- 0.18 units)
NET RETURN (Quaddies) = -0.98 points
Suggested Auto Bets:
*** indicates added Saturday morning after scratchings.
Auto (Category One) Win Bets
Doomben R5 #3 Meet Mr Taylor @ $1.7 (need $2) – 1st (no bet)
Doomben R9 #1 Order Again*** @ $4.4 – 5th (-1 unit)
Rosehill R9 #14 God of Thunder*** @ $1.9 (need $2) – 3rd (-1 unit)
Auto (2 points clear) Win Bets
Doomben R5 #3 Meet Mr Taylor @ $1.7 (need $2) – 1st (no bet)
Flemington R5 #5 Dalasan @ $3.4 – 1st (+2.4 units)
Belmont R4 #1 Cockney Crew @ $3.6 – 1st (+2.6 units)
Doomben R8 #4 Langhro @ $2.45 – 1st (+1.45 units)
Doomben R9 #1 Order Again @ $4.6 – 5th (-1 unit)
Morphettville R7 #3 Marina*** @ $2.7 – 7th (-1 unit)
The Auto (Category One) Place Bets have a good strike rate, but they’re certainly best value when backed early in the week (and it is suggested to only back these at $2 the place or longer and only in races with eight or more runners). The qualifiers at this stage (Thursday 9am) are:
Flemington R1 #5 Alfarris*** @ $2.6 – 1st (+1.6 units)
Flemington R4 #5 Long Leaf @ $2.4 – 4th (-1 unit)
Flemington R6 #10 Amberdi @ $4.2 – 4th (-1 unit)
Rosehill R7 #12 Baller @ $2.3 – 10th (-1 unit)
Flemington R7 #1 Hartnell @ $3.5 – 4th (-1 unit)
Flemington R9 #2 Dal Harraild @ $5 – 7th (-1 unit)
The Category Two Place Bets are those who should be in a good position upon straightening and might just be able to hold on for a place at decent odds. The same conditions apply as with the Category One Place Bets. With these, I like to see Sectional Ratings in the top three in the race and I’d also prefer that their Last 400 ratings aren’t hopeless. On those conditions, today’s best (of those paying $2 or more) are:
Doomben R2 #1 Ready For Danger @ $2.6 – 9th (-1 unit)
Flemington R1 #5 Alfarris*** @ $2.6 – 1st (+1.6 units)
Rosehill R3 #4 Angel of Heaven @ $3.1 – 3rd (+2.1 units)
Doomben R5 #5 Brook Magic @ $2.1 – 3rd (+1.1 units)
Rosehill R7 #12 Baller @ $2.3 – 10th (-1 unit)
Rosehill R8 #6 Noire*** @ $5.5 – 5th (-1 unit)
Belmont R6 #8 Mosseratti*** @ $4.2 – 3rd (+3.2 units)
NET RETURN (All Auto Bets) = = +4.05 points
____________________________________________________________________________________________
Saturday September 7
A good day again yesterday, with the recommended bets putting us comfortably in front for the day. The official return was +7.23 points, but some smart shopping could have significantly increased that figure. The winners were all there and, as I mention below, some luck (read: a huge amount of luck) could have seen you land the Big 6 from the quaddie nominations.
The most pleasing thing about the day for me was the continued improvement of the Auto Ratings. Anyone who viewed and followed the first file on the Auto Prices page (Auto Clear Top Pick) would’ve had a spectacular day. Five of the listed ten bets won and another three placed (two at decent odds). On win bets alone (at SP), the return for this category was +17.35 points.
Suggested Bets (Manual Form):
Moonee Valley
R1 #5 Olympic Oath @ $9.5 – 5th (-1 unit)
R2 #6 Laure Me In @ $5 – 2nd (-1 unit)
R3 #6 Kentucky Breeze @ $3.2 – 1st (+2.2 units)
R5 #1 Exhilarates @ $2.2 – 1st (+1.2 units)
R6 #9 Runson (Each way) @ $18 / $4.6 – 9th (-1 unit)
R7 #1 Faatinah @ $6 – 1st (+5 units)
R9 #12 Lucky For All @ $7 – 6th (-1 unit)
NET RETURN (Suggested Bets) = +4.4 points
This certainly could’ve been a lot higher for punters who staked according to my confidence. Also, Faatinah SPd at $8 and as much as $11 was bet on track, so there are some avenues to eek out an edge during the spring.
QUADDIES
EARLY QUADDIE:
1, 6, 13 / 2, 6, 8 / 2, 6, 8, 9, 12, 14 / 1 $27 = 50% – 4 legs (+1.78 units)
QUADDIE:
Wide: 6, 9, 10 / 1, 3, 4 / 3, 5, 6 / 2, 4, 6, 7, 12 $13.50 = 10% – 3 legs (-0.14 units)
Narrow: 6, 9, 10 / 1 / 5, 6 / Field (12) – 3 legs (-0.36 units)
- It certainly would’ve been possible to rearrange these quaddies to get the result, but it would’ve either cost a lot more or paid a much smaller percentage. In fact, simply adding Homesman from the wide quaddie into the narrow quaddie would have done the trick. I won’t pretend it would’ve been easy to get the Big 6, but if you’d taken the widest combination in each leg above, you would’ve had 1944 combinations. This means that spending the full $1944 would have returned the full Big 6 dividend of $73,930. Don’t play this way! But a $20 outlay would’ve returned 1% or $739. This is the kind of thing we’ll be targeting during the betting challenge.
NET RETURN (Quaddies) = +1.28 points
Suggested Auto Bets:
Auto (Category One) Win Bets
Randwick R4 #3 Baller @ $2.1 – 1st (+1.1 units)
The Auto (Category One) Place Bets have a good strike rate, but they’re certainly best value when backed early in the week (and it is suggested to only back these at $2 the place or longer and only in races with eight or more runners). The qualifiers at this stage (Thursday 9am) are:
Moonee Valley R4 #12 Tofane @ $2.6 – 1st (+1.6 units)
Eagle Farm R8 #2 Testashadow @ $3.3 – 3rd (+1.8 units after scratching deductions)
Note: The scratchings have altered the expected tempo here and Testashadow no longer qualifies in this category. I’ll leave him in the bet list though, as all my Place Bets are placed on a Thursday (when he still qualified).
Moonee Valley R7 #7 Meryl @ $4.6 – 4th (-1 unit)
Randwick R8 #8 Invincible Gem @ $2.7 – 7th (-1 unit)
New Qualifier:
Randwick R9 #2 Special Missile @ $2.25 – 8th (-1 unit)
The Category Two Place Bets are those who should be in a good position upon straightening and might just be able to hold on for a place at decent odds. The same conditions apply as with the Category One Place Bets. With these, I like to see Sectional Ratings in the top three in the race and I’d also prefer that their Last 400 ratings aren’t hopeless. On those conditions, today’s best (of those paying $2 or more) are:
Eagle Farm R5 #2 Don’t Waiver @ $4.4 (scratched)
Eagle Farm R8 #2 Testashadow @ $3.3 – 3rd (+1.8 units after scratching deductions)
Morphettville Parks R8 #7 Bolt I Am @ $2.6 – 9th (-1 unit)
Saturday morning edit:
There are a stack of new qualifiers, partly due to the Belmont prices being posted and partly caused by scratchings. The new qualifiers who also boast Sectional Ratings in the top three and decent Last 400 ratings are:
Eagle Farm R2 #7 The Tax Accountant @ $2.9 – 7th (-1 unit)
Randwick R3 #6 Jay Jay D’ar @ $2.25 – 3rd (+1.25 units)
Morphettville Parks R5 #2 Reiby The Red @ $2.8 – 5th (-1 unit)
NET RETURN (All Auto Bets) = +1.55 points
____________________________________________________________________________________________
Saturday August 31
Another profitable weekend, with an overall return of +7.6 points across all suggested bets. **I’ve removed the Category Two Place Bets that I didn’t recommend backing (due to poor sectional / last 400 ratings) and revised the weekend return down to +3.85 units.
Suggested Bets (Manual Form):
Caulfield
R2 #10 I’m Telling Ya (Each Way) @ $21 / $5.5 – 3rd (Win Bet = -0.5 units / Place Bet = +2.25 units)
R5 #3 King of Hastings (Win) @ $4.8 – 2nd (-1 unit)
R5 #8 Barcali (Each Way) @ $26 / $6 – 4th (-1 unit)
R6 #1 Ball of Muscle – 3rd / #4 Vega Magic – 8th (Quinella) (-1 unit)
R7 #13 Pippie (Win) @ $2.6 – 1st (+1.6 units)
R8 #5 Scales of Justice (Win) @ $5 – 1st (+4 units)
NET RETURN (Suggested Bets) = +4.35 points
QUADDIES
EARLY QUADDIE:
3, 10, 16 / 2, 4 / 3, 5, 8 / 3, 5, 7, 8 $36 = 50% – 1 leg (-0.36 units)
QUADDIE:
Wide: 1, 4, 7 / 5, 11, 13 / 1, 3, 5, 11 / 1, 2, 4, 11, 14, 16, 18 $25.20 = 10% – 4 legs (+1.58 units)
Narrow: 1, 4 / 13 / 5, 11 / Field (16) $32 = 50% – 3 legs (-0.32 units)
NET RETURN (Quaddies) = +0.9 points
Suggested Auto Bets:
Caulfield R1 #3 Alfarris @ $4.4 – 3rd (-1 unit)
Caulfield R3 #4 My Pendant @ $2.3 – 1st (+1.3 units)
The Auto (Category One) Place Bets have a good strike rate, but they’re certainly best value when backed early in the week (and it is suggested to only back these at $2 the place or longer and only in races with eight or more runners). The qualifiers at this stage (Thursday 9am) are:
Caulfield R4 #2 Gallic Chieftain @ $5 – scratched
Rosehill R6 #3 Grey Lion @ $4.6 – 9th (-1 unit)
Caulfield R7 #1 Amphitrite @ $3.2 – 6th (-1 unit)
Caulfield R8 #12 Oohood @ $10 – 7th (-1 unit)
The Category Two Place Bets are those who should be in a good position upon straightening and might just be able to hold on for a place at decent odds.
Caulfield R9 #14 Antah @ $2.15 – 7th (-1 unit)
Morphettville Parks R8 #4 Dexter You Devil @ $3.3 – 1st (+2.3 units)
NET RETURN (All Auto Bets) = -1.4 points
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Saturday August 24
A profitable day (+4.69 points), but it could’ve been a lot better had Bons Away got out a second earlier and had the judge not backed Deprive in Sydney (against Trope – Category One Auto Bet).
Suggested Bets (Manual Form):
Moonee Valley
R1 #3 Junipal – 1st @ $7 SP (+6 units)
R3 #2 Kooweerup – 3rd (-1 unit)
R4 #6 Algadon Miss – 1st @ #3.3 SP (+2.3 units)
R5 #2 Bons Away – 2nd (-1 unit)
NET RETURN (Suggested Bets) = +6.3 points
QUADDIES
EARLY QUADDIE: 7,9,11,13 / 2,4 / 3,6 / 2,5 $32 = 100% – 2 legs (-0.32 units)
QUADDIE: 6,7,9 / 1,2,3,4 / 6,9,11 / 4,12,13 $54 = 50% – 3 legs (-0.54 units)
NET RETURN (Quaddies) = -0.86 points
Suggested Auto Bets:
Category One Win Bets
Randwick R6 #12 Trope – 2nd (-1 unit)
Category One Place Bets
Randwick R8 #9 Meryl – 11th (-1 unit)
Gold Coast R6 #5 Malahat – 10th (-1 unit)
Randwick R7 #7 Invincible Gem – 3rd (+2.4 units)
If you placed your bets early in the week (admittedly a little tough this week, as the website setup delayed the release of the form until Saturday morning), you would also have backed Fabric (3rd) and Trope (2nd), who were paying over $2 the place earlier in the week.
Category Two Place Bets
Belmont R1 #3 – Whole Lotta Shakin – 6th (-1 unit)
Morphettville R4 #2 – Silent Ice – 8th (-1 unit)
Gold Coast R8 #7 – All Important – 8th (-1 unit)
Morphettville R6 #4 – Two Odd Sox – 2nd (+2.6 units)
Morphettville R8 #4 – Tambang Besi – 12th (-1 unit)
Belmont R7 #9 – Noir De Rue – 2nd (+1.25 units)
These results don’t look fantastic, but they are very profitable when the bets are placed midweek. These horses often shorten dramatically by race day. For this reason, I’ll post these bets on Wednesday or Thursday during the Carnival.
NET RETURN (All Auto Bets) = -0.75 points
RHODENRACING 