Trifecta and First Four Research

Rules

1 –  Must be at least 8 horses on Printout after scratchings.

2 –  Box the top 5 horses on  Printout provided they all have a Select Rating of 15 or more. This means 60 permutations for a box trifecta and 120 permutations for a box first four.

Results

These are calculated on a $20 investment, i.e, 1/3 of the dollar trifecta dividend and 1/6 of the dollar first four dividend.

Test period was from 1/7/2011 to 28/2/2014 (2 years, 8 months)

Trifectas           Bets 1649 Outlay $32980 Return $33469   Profit $489 (1.5% on turnover)

First Fours       Bets 1649 Outlay $32980 Return $48927 Profit $15947 (48.4% on turnover)

In the test period, there were 273 successful trifectas and 108 successful first fours. The first four results look spectacular, but depend on a few very large dividends. In fact, there were 5 first fours that paid in excess of $10,000 for $1. If you use this method you will need lots of patience, as the results indicate that only one bet in 15 will be successful.

 

See 2013 Betting Challenge results 

 

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