Let’s have a look at some of the other columns of the printout with a view to understanding the data contained therein.
WEIGHT is self-explanatory.
RUNS is the number of starts for that horse to be found in the database.
COND gives the track conditions when the Select Rating was achieved. If it is a capital letter, then the Select Rating was achieved at this course.
BEST RATING is the highest rating attained by the horse in the last 12 months.
MAX RATE COURSE is the highest rating attained by the horse at this course in the last 12 months.
MAX RATE DIS is the highest rating attained by the horse at this distance in the last 12 months.
MARGIN BEST FORM (the second last column) shows what would happen if a horse were to run its best rating of the last 12 months in this race. If this figure is negative, it means that even if this horse runs its previous best rating, it will still be behind the horse on top of the list. However, if this figure is positive, it means that this horse is capable of beating the horse on top of the list if it happens to show its best form. This is a big IF because research has shown that recent form is a much better predictor of the outcome of a race than older form. That is why the PREDICT MARGIN column is based on a horse’s last 2 runs rather than all of its form in the database.
Note that each race analysed is preceded by a heading, e.g., “RACE NO. 3 over 1600 with 5”. What does “with 5” mean? It means that there are 5 horses in the race which are capable of beating the top rated horse if they show their best form of the last 12 months. If you were to look down the MARGIN BEST FORM column for this race, you should find 5 horses with positive figures.
This concludes the explanation of the various columns on the printout. It remains to demonstrate how the ratings that appear on the printout are obtained. This will be the subject of the next article.
RHODENRACING 