Over the next few weeks, I will attempt to explain how the printout is generated and the reasoning behind the calculations. Some of this is quite complicated, so I suggest that you digest it a bit at a time rather than trying to absorb it all at once.
After a race meeting is run, each horse’s performance is evaluated and it is assigned a rating measured in kilograms. Just how this is done will be outlined in a future article. For now it will suffice to say that the main factors in the calculation are:
(1) the distance in lengths the horse finished from the winner;
(2) the weight carried by the horse;
(3) the time for the race relative to the track conditions on the day.
The numerical ratings obtained using the approach described above are added to a database, and it is this database that is used to generate the printout titled Rhoden’s Calculations.
On the first day of each month,ratings that are more than 1 year old are culled, so the database always contains just 12 months of ratings.
In building the database, only races run in Victoria and New South Wales are evaluated. Races run outside the metropolitan area are assessed only if they offer prizemoney equal to the minimum city stake (currently $35,000 in both states).
Now let us look at the printout itself. The last column (Predict Margin) indicates a possible finishing order with the first horse on the list in front and the others varying margins behind.These margins are in kilograms. I will demonstrate how to convert kilograms to lengths in a later article.The Predict Margin column is calculated using the better of each horse’s last 2 runs and the weight it is carrying in the race. The last 2 runs will be found in the columns (Select Rating) and (Non Chosen Rating). Remember it is the better of these that is used in calculations.
To Be Continued
RHODENRACING 