In this article, I will attempt to explain how I use the Printout for Win betting.
Research has shown me that I do best when I back only horses that are on top, but that if I bet on every race I have little chance of winning. What I must do is sort out those races that are worth betting on, and not get too disheartened when the top horse wins at a good price in a race that I have rejected.
Which races do I reject? Most of them! I rate about 2000-2500 races a year and bet on about 200-250 of them. Remember I only consider the top horse as a possible bet. Here are some of the criteria I use for rejecting races:
(1) Some ratings are just too low. If the top horse has a Select Rating in the teens, I always reject it even if it is a long way in front.
(2) If a horse is on top with a reasonable rating, but several horses could beat it if they showed their best form, then I usually reject it.
(3) If a horse is not far in front, it needs to have something else going for it, e.g., good rating at course or distance, or it will be rejected.
(4) If the Select Rating is the horse’s second last run, and it has failed at its last start, I look for reasons to disregard the poor run. If I can’t find any, I reject it.
(5) If the top horse has not raced for more than 30 days, I reject it unless it has run the Select Rating at both the course and distance, and is good fresh.
(6) I always look at horses that are not on the Printout to see what they have been doing and whether or not they can be risked.
(7) I also look at the double zeros at the bottom of the Printout. These horses could have been racing well in races I have not rated. In these cases, I will often let the race go. On the other hand, if they have not raced for more than 6 months, I’m quite happy to risk them.
I will conclude by pointing out the limitations of the printout.
(1) The formulas were derived after thousands of observations and apply to the “average horse”. They work pretty well, but occasionally an exceptional horse will not conform to the rules relating lengths to kilograms and seconds to kilograms.
(2) The formulas depend on the accuracy of the race distances and times. In the past, these have sometimes been quite unreliable. Things are better now, but there is still room for improvement.
(3) Luck in running can be vital in any race. The formulas do not allow for luck in running, but it is wise to see who is riding the top horse, particularly if it is badly drawn, as a good jockey may be able to help it overcome difficulties. Speed maps are also very valuable, especially if they are prepared by someone with proven ability to predict how a race will be run.
(4) The biggest problem of all is provided by the large number of slowly run races that seem to occur these days, even in sprints. Slowly run races produce low ratings. It is possible that a horse that has won its last 2 races will be well down on the Printout because the races were slowly run. It may be able to run a much higher rating when the pace is on and upset the top horse on the Printout. If the Best Rating column shows that this horse is capable of much better, then beware!
(5) Unexplained form reversals are still common. Although evidence is emerging that some races may be fixed, I feel that most form reversals are due to the horse just not feeling well on the day. As the late George Hanlon famously said when asked to explain a poor run of of one of his fancied runners: “You must remember that horses are only human”.
RHODENRACING 